A Physics-to-Fisheries Management Strategy Evaluation for the California Current System
Future Seas is a project exploring potential impacts of climate change on the swordfish, albacore, and Pacific sardine fisheries in the California Current System. A suite of dynamical, statistical, and conceptual models is being applied to explore future scenarios in an “end-to-end” framework spanning physical changes to socio-economic consequences, and to evaluate uncertainty associated with individual elements of the modeling framework.
To evaluate the impacts of climate change on US-managed marine species and fishing communities California Current Ecosystem and identify climate-resilient management strategies.
Key elements of the project work plan for the California Current Ecosystem
- Produce regional climate projections, using output from global climate models to force a high resolution regional ocean model (ROMS) coupled with a biogeochemical model.
- Predict productivity and distribution changes for Pacific sardine, albacore, and swordfish, and the socio-economic impacts of these changes on fishing communities using climate projections in conjunction with ecological and socio-economic models.
- Evaluate current catch advice and spatial management strategies for the Pacific sardine, albacore, and swordfish fisheries given the potential future impacts of climate variability and change.
- Explore possible policy and management responses to climate change and resultant socioeconomic impacts on fishery participants and fishing communities using management scenarios.
- NOAA Fisheries
- UC Santa Cruz
- Rutgers University
- University of South Carolina
Mike Jacox (email@example.com), Steven Bograd, Elliott Hazen, Stephen Stohs (NOAA/SWFSC)
Barb Muhling, Desiree Tommasi, Mer Pozo Buil, James Smith, Jon Sweeney, Stephanie Brodie, Stefan Koenigstein, Heather Welch (NOAA/SWFSC and UC Santa Cruz)
Mike Alexander (NOAA/ESRL)
Enrique Curchitser (Rutgers U)
Christopher Edwards, Jerome Fiechter (UC Santa Cruz)
Amber Himes-Cornell (FAO, Italy)
Ryan Rykaczewski (U South Carolina)
Gwendal Le Fol (Independent consultant)
Tim Frawley (California Sea Grant)
Alan Haynie, Anne Hollowed, Kirstin Holsman (NOAA/AFSC)
Alistair Hobday (CSIRO, Australia)
Charlie Stock (NOAA/GFDL)
Stephanie Green, Natasha Hardy (U Alberta)
Larry Crowder (Stanford)
Funded by NOAA/CPO Coastal and Oceans Climate Applications program and the NOAA/NMFS Office of Science and Technology