Publications

Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high-emission climate change scenario

Publication date
September 26, 2017
Authors
Barbara A. Muhling, John Jacobs, Charles A. Stock, Carlos F. Gaitan, Vincent S. Saba
Abstract

Illness caused by pathogenic strains of Vibrio bacteria incurs significant economic and health care costs in many areas around the world. In the Chesapeake Bay, the two most problematic species are Vvulnificus and Vparahaemolyticus, which cause infection both from exposure to contaminated water and consumption of contaminated seafood. We used existing Vibrio habitat models, four global climate models, and a recently developed statistical downscaling framework to project the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of Vvulnificus and Vcholerae in the estuarine environment, and the mean concentration of Vparahaemolyticus in oysters in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the 21st century. Results showed substantial future increases in season length and spatial habitat for Vvulnificus and Vparahaemolyticus, while projected increase in Vcholerae habitat was less marked and more spatially heterogeneous. Our findings underscore the need for spatially variable inputs into models of climate impacts on Vibrios in estuarine environments. Overall, economic costs associated with Vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, such as incidence of illness and management measures on the shellfish industry, may increase under climate change, with implications for recreational and commercial uses of the ecosystem.

Journal
GeoHealth
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GH000089
Region
Northeast