J-SCOPE Seasonal Forecasts

California Current Project

J-SCOPE (JISAO Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem) provides short term (six to nine month) forecasts of ocean conditions in the northern California Current.

Forecasts and publications are available from: http://www.nanoos.org/products/j-scope/home.php

Animation of Jscope
Figure 1. The series of images above shows the J-SCOPE forecast for 2019, from ensemble model run three, initialized on January 25, 2019. More information about the three panels on the left can be found by navigating to the Oxygen, Chlorophyll, and Sea Surface Temperature tabs on the J-SCOPE website. The panel on the far right depicts the evolution of bottom water pH over the forecast period; more details can be found here. The 8-day upwelling index is calculated using methods described under the California Current Indicators link.

 

The J-SCOPE and CCIEA teams recently provided seasonal forecasts to the Pacific Fishery Management Council as part of the annual Ecosystem Status Report. That report, and the J-SCOPE forecast website, contains predictions of California Current indicators, including: upwelling indices, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and El Niño based on the output for CFS for the modeled region.

As part of the Ecosystem Status Report, J-SCOPE also forecasts oxygen concentrations and aragonite saturation state (an ocean acidification variable). In both Oregon and Washington, the forecast projects that the oxygen concentration for the 2019 upwelling season will be lower than the climatology (i.e., typical conditions) on both the shelf and at deeper depths, with the largest anomalies occurring between the surface and ~350-m depth in Oregon (Fig. 2, left), and ~500-m depth in Washington (Fig. 2, right).

Forecasted oxygen concentrations in the water columns in Oregon (left) and Washington (right)
Figure 2. The forecasted cross-section from the Newport Line off Oregon (left, 44°N) and the Grays Harbor Line off Washington (right, 47°N), averaged over all three ensemble members and averaged over the summer upwelling months (May-August). Oxygen (umol/kg) anomalies are measured as the difference from the climatology (an average of forecasted conditions spanning 2009-2017).

 

Aragonite saturation state at the seafloor is forecasted to decrease (become more corrosive) over the course of the spring and summer of 2019. Most of the modeled benthic region is forecasted to be undersaturated for the entire forecast season, with the exception of coastal locations off of Washington and Oregon at the beginning of the forecast (January-February), and some isolated locations in Washington later in the spring and summer (March-August) (Fig. 3).

Aragonite saturation state forecast for the Oregon and Washington coasts
Figure 3. The modeled region bottom aragonite saturation state (Ω) averaged over all three ensemble members and in time for (from left to right) January-February, March-April, May-June, and July-August. For reference, Ω=1 is the physical chemistry defined boundary between undersaturated and saturated conditions, but stressful conditions for juvenile oysters begin to occur before the waters become undersaturated (Ω=1.3). The 200-m isobath is outlined by the beige contour line.