J-SCOPE Seasonal Forecasts
California Current Project
J-SCOPE (JISAO Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem) provides short term (six to nine month) forecasts of ocean conditions in the northern California Current.
Forecasts and publications are available from: http://www.nanoos.org/products/j-scope/home.php
The J-SCOPE and CCIEA teams recently provided seasonal forecasts to the Pacific Fishery Management Council as part of the annual Ecosystem Status Report. That report, and the J-SCOPE forecast website, contains predictions of California Current indicators, including: upwelling indices, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and El Niño based on the output for CFS for the modeled region.
As part of the Ecosystem Status Report, J-SCOPE also forecasts oxygen concentrations and aragonite saturation state (an ocean acidification variable). In both Oregon and Washington, the forecast projects that the oxygen concentration for the 2019 upwelling season will be lower than the climatology (i.e., typical conditions) on both the shelf and at deeper depths, with the largest anomalies occurring between the surface and ~350-m depth in Oregon (Fig. 2, left), and ~500-m depth in Washington (Fig. 2, right).
Aragonite saturation state at the seafloor is forecasted to decrease (become more corrosive) over the course of the spring and summer of 2019. Most of the modeled benthic region is forecasted to be undersaturated for the entire forecast season, with the exception of coastal locations off of Washington and Oregon at the beginning of the forecast (January-February), and some isolated locations in Washington later in the spring and summer (March-August) (Fig. 3).