Assess Risk and Provide Advice

Eastern Bering Sea

What is a Risk Assessment?

Risk assessments quantify the probability of undesirable events along with their consequences and are the fourth step in the Integrated Ecosystem Assessment approach. They are used to prioritize management interventions and assess tradeoffs, serving as an essential component of ecosystem-based management (EBM). A central objective of most risk assessments for conservation and management is to characterize uncertainty and impacts associated with one or more pressures of interest. Risk assessments have been used in marine resource management to help evaluate the risk of environmental, ecological, and anthropogenic pressures on species or habitats including for data-poor fisheries management (e.g., toxicity, probability of extinction, habitat alteration impacts). Traditionally, marine risk assessments focused on singular pressure-response relationships, but recent advancements have included use of risk assessments in an EBM context, providing a method for evaluating the cumulative impacts of multiple pressures on multiple ecosystem components. IEA ecosystem risk assessments range from rapid semi-qualitative expert-opinion based vulnerability assessments to highly quantitative management strategy evaluations. To learn more about risk assessments go here.

 

What risk assessments are being done in the Eastern Bering Sea?

The Alaska Climate Integrated Modeling (ACLIM) project is a collaboration of diverse researchers aimed at giving decision makers critical information regarding the far-reaching impacts of environmental changes in the Bering Sea. This project is developing multi-model assessment of climate change impacts on fish, food-webs, and fisheries in Alaska, which will use management strategy evaluations to produce biomass trajectories for 5 target species under high and low future emission scenarios and various alternative harvest strategies. This project includes novel, stakeholder-driven strategies and will inform the Bering Sea Fishery Ecosystem Plan

Alaska Climate model
Diagram of Integrated Models used for the Alaska Climate Integrated Modeling project.